El Niño and the Indian Monsoon — A Tug of War Across Oceans

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is not merely a weather pattern. It is the circulatory system of an entire civilisation. Between June and September, the monsoon delivers roughly 80% of India’s annual precipitation — filling reservoirs, recharging aquifers, and determining the fate of Kharif crops that feed over a billion people. The long-period average (LPA) for this June–September window is 868.6 mm, a number that anchors every seasonal forecast and every agricultural planning cycle. When the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies a season as “deficient” — defined as rainfall falling below 90% of LPA — the consequences ripple through food prices, rural incomes, and river flows for years.

Enso on Clusters and Climate

El Niño and the Indian Monsoon — A Tug of War Across Oceans